Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Random Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Fair Oaks
Tract 51059461202 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,749 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51059461202 sits in the Random Hills area of Fair Oaks eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.8/10. Population here is 6,749. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.5/10.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units2,788
Renter share47.0%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate7.2%
Median income$131,534
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fair Oaks and the region
Centroid at 38.8592, -77.3365 · click any tract to drill in
Why Random Hills scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.2% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$2,350 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fair Oaks
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fair Oaks
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fair Oaks
4.7
How Random Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 39
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 23%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 65%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 123Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.5%Peak (2013)
- 38Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 46% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.5%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.6%Food insecurity
- 5.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 5.5%No health insurance
- 12.6%Frequent mental distress
- 19.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Random Hills
Running cool, economic stress reads 1.8/10. Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
It sits 1.5 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 48% of renters here are cost-burdened. SNAP participation runs 5.4% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.6% against 17.8% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 123 evictions over 4 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2013, when 4.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.1% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 4.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059461202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059461202?
Census tract 51059461202 in the Random Hills neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059461202?
Median gross rent is $2,350/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059461202?
7.2% of residents in tract 51059461202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,749.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059461202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 23th, household 29th, minority 65th, housing 65th.
Q5
Is tract 51059461202 considered part of Random Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059461202 fall within Random Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059461202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 123 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059461202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.12% of renter households, peaking at 4.5% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059461202 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059461202 compare to Fair Oaks overall?
Tract 51059461202 scores 5.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Fair Oaks at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fair Oaks
Top eight tracts in Fair Oaks ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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