Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #80,791 of 84,120 nationally
Penderlan Eviction Risk: Lower , Fair Oaks
Tract 51059491707 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,832 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51059491707 runs through the Penderlan area of Fair Oaks. With 4,832 residents, it scores 5.5/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 55% of US census tracts.
33% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,231 a month while the average household earns $144,836 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
1.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,867
Renter share51.3%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate6.7%
Median income$144,836
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
51
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
16
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fair Oaks and the region
Centroid at 38.8694, -77.3766 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderlan scores 1.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fair Oaks
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
6.7% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$2,231 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fair Oaks
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fair Oaks
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fair Oaks
4.7
How Penderlan compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 30%Socioeconomic
- 23%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 74%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderlan. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.9%Food insecurity
- 5.6%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 6.6%No health insurance
- 13.2%Frequent mental distress
- 21.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderlan
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 8.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 46th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059491707
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059491707?
Census tract 51059491707 in the Penderlan neighborhood scores 1.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059491707?
Median gross rent is $2,231/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059491707?
6.7% of residents in tract 51059491707 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,832.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059491707?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 23th, minority 73th, housing 74th.
Q5
Is tract 51059491707 considered part of Penderlan?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059491707 fall within Penderlan (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059491707 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059491707 compare to Fair Oaks overall?
Tract 51059491707 scores 1.3/10, lower than the parent city of Fair Oaks at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fair Oaks eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fair Oaks
Top eight tracts in Fair Oaks ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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