Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally
Penderwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Difficult Run
Tract 51059482603 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,908 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 51059482603 runs through the Penderwood neighborhood of Difficult Run. With 2,908 residents, it scores $1/10 for landlords. It lands near the 74th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 90% of renter households, a severe level, and 53% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,440 a month against an average household income of $138,160 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 27% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,258
Renter share26.9%
SVI overall0.25
Poverty rate0.8%
Median income$138,160
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
17
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
33
th percentile
Low
Within state
9
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Difficult Run and the region
Centroid at 38.8789, -77.3772 · click any tract to drill in
Why Penderwood scores 1.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Difficult Run
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,440 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Difficult Run
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Difficult Run
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Difficult Run
4.7
How Penderwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 25
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 45%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 36%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Penderwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.3%Housing insecurity
- 3.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.1%Food insecurity
- 3.4%SNAP enrollment
- 3.8%Transit barriers
- 4.6%No health insurance
- 10.5%Frequent mental distress
- 20.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Penderwood
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Difficult Run, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is Asian and White and ranks around the 25th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 5.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059482603
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059482603?
Census tract 51059482603 in the Penderwood neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059482603?
Median gross rent is $2,440/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 90% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059482603?
0.8% of residents in tract 51059482603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,908.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059482603?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 25th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 45th, minority 64th, housing 36th.
Q5
Is tract 51059482603 considered part of Penderwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059482603 fall within Penderwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059482603 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059482603 compare to Difficult Run overall?
Tract 51059482603 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Difficult Run at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Difficult Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Difficult Run
Top eight tracts in Difficult Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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