Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Cooktown Eviction Risk: Lower , Dranesville
Tract 51059480503 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,307 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
51059480503 is a census tract in the Cooktown area of Dranesville, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,307. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,165
Renter share5.2%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$187,313
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
15
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dranesville and the region
Centroid at 38.9879, -77.3712 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cooktown scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dranesville
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,648 rent vs county FMR
6.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dranesville
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dranesville
2.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dranesville
5.6
How Cooktown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 80%Household composition
- 50%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 20Total filings over 4 yrs
- 7.79%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.0%Peak (2011)
- 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 57% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cooktown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.2%Housing insecurity
- 3.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 5.3%Food insecurity
- 3.2%SNAP enrollment
- 3.7%Transit barriers
- 4.5%No health insurance
- 11.4%Frequent mental distress
- 18.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cooktown
Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.9/10. 18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Food insecurity runs 5.3% against 17.8% nationally.
On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.3/10. At $2,648 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Dranesville commands.
Housing insecurity runs 5.2% against 14.2% nationally. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. Court records carry 20 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
The voucher gap is 14.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 45% of renters here are cost-burdened. Filings peaked in 2011 at 9.0% of renter households.
In a typical year about 7.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480503
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480503?
Census tract 51059480503 in the Cooktown neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480503?
Median gross rent is $2,648/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480503?
1.2% of residents in tract 51059480503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,307.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480503?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 80th, minority 50th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51059480503 considered part of Cooktown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480503 fall within Cooktown (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480503?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480503 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.79% of renter households, peaking at 9.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059480503 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059480503 compare to Dranesville overall?
Tract 51059480503 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of Dranesville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dranesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dranesville
Top eight tracts in Dranesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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