Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Cooktown Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dranesville
Tract 51059480801 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,624 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 4.8/10, tract 51059480801 in the Cooktown area of Herndon, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,624 residents. 21% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,910
Renter share33.5%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate12.2%
Median income$156,953
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dranesville and the region
Centroid at 38.9776, -77.3859 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cooktown scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dranesville
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.2% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$2,266 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dranesville
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dranesville
7.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dranesville
4.3
How Cooktown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 45
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 33%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 38Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.43%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.5%Peak (2011)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 21% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cooktown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.0%Food insecurity
- 10.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.8%Transit barriers
- 13.2%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 26.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cooktown
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 7.7/10. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.7/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 46% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 38 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 3.5% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 58th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $156,953, an unusually wide affordability cushion. It tracks the Fairfax County average of 4.3 closely.
Average gross rent is $2,266, close to the Herndon average. 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480801
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480801?
Census tract 51059480801 in the Cooktown neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480801?
Median gross rent is $2,266/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480801?
12.2% of residents in tract 51059480801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,624.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480801?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 28th, minority 79th, housing 33th.
Q5
Is tract 51059480801 considered part of Cooktown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480801 fall within Cooktown (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480801?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 38 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.43% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059480801 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059480801 compare to Dranesville overall?
Tract 51059480801 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Dranesville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dranesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dranesville
Top eight tracts in Dranesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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