Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Census Tract · Ranked #79,998 of 84,120 nationally
Herndon Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51059480902 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,973 · 93% of tract blocks fall in Herndon
Census tract 51059480902 runs through Herndon. With 3,973 residents, it scores 4.8/10 for landlords. It lands near the 30th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
21% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,290 a month against an average household income of $161,458 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 44% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,368
Renter share43.9%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$161,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
19
th percentile
Very Low
National
5
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Herndon and the region
Centroid at 38.9604, -77.3840 · click any tract to drill in
Why Herndon scores 1.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Herndon
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$2,290 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Herndon
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Herndon
7.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Herndon
4.3
How Herndon compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 44%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 102Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.4%Peak (2012)
- 16Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.1%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.2%Food insecurity
- 9.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.6%Transit barriers
- 11.5%No health insurance
- 14.3%Frequent mental distress
- 25.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Herndon
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Herndon eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 102 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 3.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.4% of renter households in 2012.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480902?
Census tract 51059480902 in Herndon scores 1.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480902?
Median gross rent is $2,290/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 21% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480902?
7.8% of residents in tract 51059480902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,973.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 37th, minority 77th, housing 44th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 102 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.91% of renter households, peaking at 6.4% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51059480902 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51059480902 compare to Herndon overall?
Tract 51059480902 scores 1.4/10, lower than the parent city of Herndon at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Herndon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Herndon
Top eight tracts in Herndon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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