Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Blue Oaks Eviction Risk: Moderate , Kings Park West
Tract 51059430203 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,850 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51059430203 sits in the Blue Oaks area of Kings Park West, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.3/10. Population here is 2,850. Severe burden reaches 60%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units885
Renter share12.1%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate11.9%
Median income$179,632
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Kings Park West and the region
Centroid at 38.8183, -77.3000 · click any tract to drill in
Why Blue Oaks scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Kings Park West
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.9% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$3,133 rent vs county FMR
8.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Kings Park West
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Kings Park West
3.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Kings Park West
6.5
How Blue Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 6
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 16%Socioeconomic
- 15%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 3%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 4Total filings over 3 yrs
- 1.53%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.3%Peak (2011)
- 1Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 100% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Blue Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.5%Food insecurity
- 4.9%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 12.4%Frequent mental distress
- 22.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Blue Oaks
Cost burden runs 68% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County. The voucher gap is 35.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The dominant input is supply constraint at 8.5/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10. At $3,133 a month, rents run 22% over what the rest of Kings Park West commands.
Food insecurity runs 7.5% against 17.8% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
Court records carry 4 eviction filings across 3 observed years. Housing insecurity runs 6.4% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2011 at 2.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430203?
Census tract 51059430203 in the Blue Oaks neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430203?
Median gross rent is $3,133/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430203?
11.9% of residents in tract 51059430203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,850.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 16th, household 15th, minority 61th, housing 3th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430203 considered part of Blue Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430203 fall within Blue Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430203?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 4 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059430203 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.53% of renter households, peaking at 2.3% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430203 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430203 compare to Kings Park West overall?
Tract 51059430203 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Kings Park West at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Kings Park West; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Kings Park West
Top eight tracts in Kings Park West ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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