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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Cannon Eviction Risk: Lower , Rose Hill

Tract 51059420300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,360 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

51059420300 is a census tract in the Cannon area of Rose Hill, VA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,360 residents. The voucher gap is 34.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 9% Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units2,177
Renter share14.9%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate2.5%
Median income$175,670

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Cannon
Moderate
Within parent city
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 6 tracts In Rose Hill
Elevated
Within county
2 th percentile
Rank, 2nd percentileLowHigh
#270 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
Very Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Rose Hill and the region

Centroid at 38.7971, -77.1008 · click any tract to drill in

Why Cannon scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,119 rent vs county FMR
8.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Rose Hill
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Rose Hill
3.2

How Cannon compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Cannon risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 420300Rose Hill: 3.43.4Rose Hillparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 15

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 30Total filings over 4 yrs
  • 4.39%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.8%Peak (2012)
  • 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2011 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 510594203002011: 6 filings (3.87/100 renter HHs)2012: 9 filings (5.81/100 renter HHs)2013: 8 filings (5.16/100 renter HHs)2016: 7 filings (2.73/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 17% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Cannon

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, supply constraint reads 8.5/10.

17% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points. Well under the midpoint, local political climate reads 2.4/10.

SNAP participation runs 5.2% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.1% against 17.8% nationally. Court records carry 30 eviction filings across 4 observed years.

At $3,119 a month, rents run 10% over what the rest of Rose Hill commands. The worst year on record was 2012, when 5.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 4.4% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059420300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059420300?

Census tract 51059420300 in the Cannon neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059420300?

Median gross rent is $3,119/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059420300?

2.5% of residents in tract 51059420300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,360.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059420300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 11th, household 69th, minority 54th, housing 6th.
Q5

Is tract 51059420300 considered part of Cannon?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059420300 fall within Cannon (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059420300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 30 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059420300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.39% of renter households, peaking at 5.8% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51059420300 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51059420300 compare to Rose Hill overall?

Tract 51059420300 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Rose Hill at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rose Hill; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rose Hill

Top eight tracts in Rose Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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