Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #78,212 of 84,120 nationally
Oakwood Eviction Risk: Lower , Franconia
Tract 51059420203 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,856 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 51059420203, home to 2,856 residents in Oakwood in Franconia, scores 5.1/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 41% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 72% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $3,361 a month while the average household earns $188,625 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 11% of occupied homes.
Risk score
1.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,045
Renter share11.2%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate1.5%
Median income$188,625
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
74
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
25
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Franconia and the region
Centroid at 38.7922, -77.1292 · click any tract to drill in
Why Oakwood scores 1.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Franconia
2.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,361 rent vs county FMR
9.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Franconia
2.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Franconia
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Franconia
3.2
How Oakwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 6
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 6%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 54%Racial/ethnic minority
- 6%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 14Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.75%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.2%Peak (2013)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 33% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Oakwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.6%Housing insecurity
- 4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.6%Food insecurity
- 4.3%SNAP enrollment
- 4.3%Transit barriers
- 5.2%No health insurance
- 11.8%Frequent mental distress
- 20.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Oakwood
What moves this score most is supply constraint at 9.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Franconia, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 14 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 2.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.2% of renter households in 2013.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 6th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059420203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059420203?
Census tract 51059420203 in the Oakwood neighborhood scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059420203?
Median gross rent is $3,361/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059420203?
1.5% of residents in tract 51059420203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,856.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059420203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 6th, household 26th, minority 54th, housing 6th.
Q5
Is tract 51059420203 considered part of Oakwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059420203 fall within Oakwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059420203?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059420203 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.75% of renter households, peaking at 3.2% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059420203 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059420203 compare to Franconia overall?
Tract 51059420203 scores 1.6/10, lower than the parent city of Franconia at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Franconia; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Franconia
Top eight tracts in Franconia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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