Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #77,226 of 84,120 nationally
Cooktown Eviction Risk: Lower , Dranesville
Tract 51059480801 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,624 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 5.7/10, tract 51059480801 in the Cooktown neighborhood of Dranesville ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 6,624 residents. That is riskier than about 63% of US census tracts.
About 46% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,266 a month against an average household income of $156,953 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,910
Renter share33.5%
SVI overall0.45
Poverty rate12.2%
Median income$156,953
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
27
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dranesville and the region
Centroid at 38.9776, -77.3859 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cooktown scores 1.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dranesville
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.2% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$2,266 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dranesville
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dranesville
7.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dranesville
4.3
How Cooktown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 45
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 28%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 33%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 38Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.43%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.5%Peak (2011)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 21% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cooktown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.0%Food insecurity
- 10.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.8%Transit barriers
- 13.2%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 26.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cooktown
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Dranesville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 45th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 38 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 2.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.5% of renter households in 2011.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059480801
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059480801?
Census tract 51059480801 in the Cooktown neighborhood scores 1.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059480801?
Median gross rent is $2,266/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059480801?
12.2% of residents in tract 51059480801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,624.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059480801?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 45th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 28th, minority 79th, housing 33th.
Q5
Is tract 51059480801 considered part of Cooktown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059480801 fall within Cooktown (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059480801?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 38 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059480801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.43% of renter households, peaking at 3.5% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059480801 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059480801 compare to Dranesville overall?
Tract 51059480801 scores 1.7/10, lower than the parent city of Dranesville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dranesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dranesville
Top eight tracts in Dranesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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