Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally
Belvedere Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Barcroft
Tract 51059451100 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,574 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51059451100 covers part of the Belvedere area of Lake Barcroft, VA, and scores 3.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,574 residents. 5% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far below the Fairfax County average of 41.0%.
Risk score
3.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units797
Renter share11.9%
SVI overall0.20
Poverty rate1.6%
Median income$207,639
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
29
th percentile
Low
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Barcroft and the region
Centroid at 38.8418, -77.1577 · click any tract to drill in
Why Belvedere scores 3.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,741 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
4.3
How Belvedere compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 20
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 25%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 13%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 13Total filings over 4 yrs
- 5.00%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.1%Peak (2013)
- 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 100% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.6%Food insecurity
- 5.4%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 8.7%No health insurance
- 12.1%Frequent mental distress
- 24.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Belvedere
Average gross rent is $2,741, 43% above the Lake Barcroft average. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.4/10.
The voucher gap is 18.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. SNAP participation runs 5.4% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 8.6% against 17.8% nationally. Court records carry 13 eviction filings across 4 observed years. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
It sits 0.8 points below the Fairfax County average of 4.3. The worst year on record was 2013, when 8.1% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 5.0% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451100?
Census tract 51059451100 in the Belvedere neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451100?
Median gross rent is $2,741/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 5% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451100?
1.6% of residents in tract 51059451100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,574.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 20th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 29th, minority 65th, housing 13th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451100 considered part of Belvedere?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451100 fall within Belvedere (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 13 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059451100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.00% of renter households, peaking at 8.1% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451100 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451100 compare to Lake Barcroft overall?
Tract 51059451100 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Barcroft at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Barcroft; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Barcroft
Top eight tracts in Lake Barcroft ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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