Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Courtland Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bailey's Crossroads
Tract 51059451602 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,743 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
51059451602 is a census tract in the Courtland Park area of Lake Barcroft, VA. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,743. The severe-burden share is 33%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,206
Renter share41.0%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate7.3%
Median income$93,720
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bailey's Crossroads and the region
Centroid at 38.8516, -77.1454 · click any tract to drill in
Why Courtland Park scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.3% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,888 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bailey's Crossroads
4.3
How Courtland Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 77%Socioeconomic
- 70%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 69%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 65Total filings over 4 yrs
- 3.23%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.7%Peak (2011)
- 11Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 52% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Courtland Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.4%Food insecurity
- 8.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.9%Transit barriers
- 9.1%No health insurance
- 13.5%Frequent mental distress
- 25.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Courtland Park
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 53% of renters here are cost-burdened. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8.4/10.
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.8/10. Court records carry 65 eviction filings across 4 observed years. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. The worst year on record was 2011, when 4.7% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 3.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,888, close to the Lake Barcroft average.
Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $93,720. 41% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451602
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451602?
Census tract 51059451602 in the Courtland Park neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451602?
Median gross rent is $1,888/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451602?
7.3% of residents in tract 51059451602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,743.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451602?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 70th, minority 63th, housing 69th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451602 considered part of Courtland Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451602 fall within Courtland Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451602?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 65 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059451602 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.23% of renter households, peaking at 4.7% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451602 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451602 compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Tract 51059451602 scores 4.9/10, lower than the parent city of Bailey's Crossroads at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bailey's Crossroads eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bailey's Crossroads
Top eight tracts in Bailey's Crossroads ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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