Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Sleepy Hollow Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Barcroft
Tract 51059451300 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 2,618 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 51059451300 covers part of the Sleepy Hollow Manor area of Lake Barcroft, VA, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,618. Severe burden reaches 47%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units851
Renter share14.9%
SVI overall0.21
Poverty rate11.1%
Median income$194,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Barcroft and the region
Centroid at 38.8676, -77.1533 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sleepy Hollow Manor scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.1% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$3,250 rent vs county FMR
9.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
4.3
How Sleepy Hollow Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 21
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 27%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 10Total filings over 3 yrs
- 4.40%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.3%Peak (2016)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 200% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.9%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.7%Food insecurity
- 5.2%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 12.4%Frequent mental distress
- 23.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sleepy Hollow Manor
At $3,250 a month, rents run 69% over what the rest of Lake Barcroft commands. The voucher gap is 40.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 9/10.
On the high side, local political climate reads 8.4/10. Cost burden runs about half here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Food insecurity runs 7.7% against 17.8% nationally. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.8/10.
The filing record is not thin: 10 evictions over 3 years of observation. Housing insecurity runs 6.9% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 8.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451300?
Census tract 51059451300 in the Sleepy Hollow Manor neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451300?
Median gross rent is $3,250/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451300?
11.1% of residents in tract 51059451300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,618.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 21th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 27th, minority 51th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451300 considered part of Sleepy Hollow Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451300 fall within Sleepy Hollow Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 51059451300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.40% of renter households, peaking at 8.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451300 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451300 compare to Lake Barcroft overall?
Tract 51059451300 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Lake Barcroft at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Barcroft; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Barcroft
Top eight tracts in Lake Barcroft ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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