Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,048 of 84,120 nationally
Malbrook Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Barcroft
Tract 51059451200 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,700 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 3.6/10, tract 51059451200 in the Malbrook area of Lake Barcroft, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,700 residents. 40% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units654
Renter share7.2%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate0.4%
Median income$197,188
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
33
th percentile
Low
Within state
37
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Barcroft and the region
Centroid at 38.8518, -77.1635 · click any tract to drill in
Why Malbrook scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,600 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
4.3
How Malbrook compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 2
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 33%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.67%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.7%Peak (2016)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.5%Housing insecurity
- 2.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.8%Food insecurity
- 3.0%SNAP enrollment
- 3.3%Transit barriers
- 4.8%No health insurance
- 10.4%Frequent mental distress
- 22.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Malbrook
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Average gross rent is $2,600, 35% above the Lake Barcroft average. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.4/10.
roughly one in two of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Fairfax County average of 41.0%. Food insecurity runs 4.8% against 17.8% nationally. Court records carry 1 eviction filings across 1 observed years.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.1/10. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points.
The voucher gap is 12.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 1.7% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.7% of renter households face a filing.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451200?
Census tract 51059451200 in the Malbrook neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451200?
Median gross rent is $2,600/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451200?
0.4% of residents in tract 51059451200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,700.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 29th, minority 33th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451200 considered part of Malbrook?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451200 fall within Malbrook (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51059451200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.67% of renter households, peaking at 1.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451200 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451200 compare to Lake Barcroft overall?
Tract 51059451200 scores 3.6/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Barcroft at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Barcroft; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Barcroft
Top eight tracts in Lake Barcroft ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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