3 census tracts · pop 14,479 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.2/10
· range 4.9–7.7
Courtland Park spans 3 census tracts of Bailey's Crossroads, VA, population 14,479. The Eviction Risk Score is 7.2/10, in the Elevated tier. Cost burden runs 56% against 34.7% citywide, putting Courtland Park 21.2% over its own city.
28% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 4.9 to 7.7, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk.
What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.9/10. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.7/10. The poverty rate is 21%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Court records carry 805 eviction filings across its 3 observed tracts. Sitting well above the midpoint is housing-court posture at 7.5/10.
20.0% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. At $1,775 a month, rents sit 12% under what the rest of Bailey's Crossroads commands.
Filing activity peaked in 2011 at 20.0% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 3.3% in 2016, is well off that peak. Among the 4 mapped neighborhoods of Bailey's Crossroads, it ranks #4 by risk, the lower third.
For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 7.2 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
7.2
Elevated
3 tracts · population-weighted
Courtland Park vs Bailey's CrossroadsHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority84%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport82%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Courtland Park
Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
805Total filings (sum)
6.77%Avg annual filing rate
20.0%Peak year (2011)
3.77%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Courtland Park
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
21.4%Housing insecurity
12.4%Utility shutoff threat
28.0%Food insecurity
21.5%SNAP enrollment
23.8%No health insurance
34.0%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Courtland Park
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Courtland Park?
Courtland Park scores 7.2/10 (Elevated tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Courtland Park compare to Bailey's Crossroads overall?
Courtland Park scores 0.9 points higher than Bailey's Crossroads overall (6.3/10). Renters spend 56% of income on rent vs 35% citywide. Average rent: $1,775 vs $2,021.
Q3
What is the average rent in Courtland Park?
Average gross rent in Courtland Park is $1,775/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Courtland Park residents are renters?
65% of Courtland Park households are renter-occupied (vs 52% in Bailey's Crossroads). The neighborhood has 14,479 residents.
Q5
Is Courtland Park a high social-vulnerability area?
Courtland Park sits in the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Courtland Park have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Courtland Park is census tract 51059451601 (score 7.7/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.9 to 7.7, a spread of 2.8 points.
Q7
How safe is Courtland Park for landlords?
Courtland Park carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.2/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Bailey's Crossroads as a whole (6.3/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Courtland Park?
Courtland Park has 14,834 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (49.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (21.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (15.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
