Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #82,639 of 84,120 nationally
Malbrook Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Barcroft
Tract 51059451200 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 1,700 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Census tract 51059451200 belongs to Malbrook in Lake Barcroft, Virginia. It is home to 1,700 residents and scores 5.8/10, a moderate reading for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #28,071 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 51% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 40% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,600 a month against an average household income of $197,188 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 7% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units654
Renter share7.2%
SVI overall0.02
Poverty rate0.4%
Median income$197,188
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
18
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
9
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Barcroft and the region
Centroid at 38.8518, -77.1635 · click any tract to drill in
Why Malbrook scores 1.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
8.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,600 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Barcroft
4.3
How Malbrook compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 2
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 2%Socioeconomic
- 29%Household composition
- 33%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.67%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.7%Peak (2016)
- 1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.5%Housing insecurity
- 2.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.8%Food insecurity
- 3.0%SNAP enrollment
- 3.3%Transit barriers
- 4.8%No health insurance
- 10.4%Frequent mental distress
- 22.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Malbrook
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 6.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Barcroft, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Fairfax County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 4.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 2.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 1.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 1.7% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059451200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059451200?
Census tract 51059451200 in the Malbrook neighborhood scores 1.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059451200?
Median gross rent is $2,600/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059451200?
0.4% of residents in tract 51059451200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,700.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059451200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 2th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 2th, household 29th, minority 33th, housing 2th.
Q5
Is tract 51059451200 considered part of Malbrook?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059451200 fall within Malbrook (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059451200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51059451200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.67% of renter households, peaking at 1.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059451200 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059451200 compare to Lake Barcroft overall?
Tract 51059451200 scores 1.1/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Barcroft at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Barcroft; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Barcroft
Top eight tracts in Lake Barcroft ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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