Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Mosaic District Eviction Risk: Elevated , Merrifield
Tract 51059440201 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,775 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 51059440201 sits in the Mosaic District area of Merrifield, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.1/10. It is home to 3,775 residents. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 48%
Owners 21%
Tract context
Occupied units2,201
Renter share78.9%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate10.8%
Median income$142,013
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Merrifield and the region
Centroid at 38.8733, -77.2222 · click any tract to drill in
Why Mosaic District scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Merrifield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.8% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$2,440 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Merrifield
3.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Merrifield
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Merrifield
3.8
How Mosaic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 12%Socioeconomic
- 3%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 37%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 106Total filings over 4 yrs
- 2.97%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.6%Peak (2016)
- 59Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 211% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Mosaic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.5%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.4%Food insecurity
- 6.1%SNAP enrollment
- 5.8%Transit barriers
- 7.4%No health insurance
- 13.8%Frequent mental distress
- 19.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Mosaic District
79% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. It sits 1.8 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
Disability prevalence runs 19.4% against 31.5% nationally. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Running cool, economic stress reads 2.7/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 106 filings here across 4 tracked years. Food insecurity runs 9.4% against 17.8% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 4.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.0% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 79% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.1/10.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059440201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059440201?
Census tract 51059440201 in the Mosaic District neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059440201?
Median gross rent is $2,440/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059440201?
10.8% of residents in tract 51059440201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,775.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059440201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 3th, minority 68th, housing 37th.
Q5
Is tract 51059440201 considered part of Mosaic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059440201 fall within Mosaic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059440201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 106 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059440201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.97% of renter households, peaking at 4.6% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059440201 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059440201 compare to Merrifield overall?
Tract 51059440201 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Merrifield at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Merrifield; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Merrifield
Top eight tracts in Merrifield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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