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Neighborhood · Merrifield, VA

Mosaic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 10,693 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.8/10 · range 5.4–6.1

Mosaic District spans 3 census tracts of Merrifield, VA, population 10,693. Scored across those inputs it reaches 5.8/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10.

78% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. roughly one in three of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, higher than the Merrifield rate of 26.2%. On the softer side is economic stress, at 1.6/10.

Severe burden reaches 13%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Court records for this tract carry 106 eviction filings. SNAP participation is 5.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity affects 8.8% of adults, 9.0 points below the national rate. The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 4.6% of renter households.

Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 3/10. Judgments average 0.8% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
3 tracts · population-weighted
Mosaic District vs Merrifield How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
34.9% +33%
Merrifield: 26.2%
Average gross rent
$2,309 -2%
Merrifield: $2,368
Average HH income
$130,005 -5%
Merrifield: $136,173
Poverty rate
4.8% -26%
Merrifield: 6.5%
Renter share
78.2% +28%
Merrifield: 60.9%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mosaic District and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 5.4–6.1

Why Mosaic District scores 5.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.4–7.4 across tracts
7.4
Rent control risk
35% of income on rent · Range 3.9–3.9 across tracts
3.9
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
78% renter households · Range 9.7–9.7 across tracts
9.7
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 3.8–3.8 across tracts
3.8
Economic stress
4.8% below poverty line · Range 1.0–2.7 across tracts
1.6
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.5–5.5 across tracts
5.0
Risk score comparison

Mosaic District vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Mosaic District score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Mosaic District: 5.85.8Mosaic DistrictNeighborhoodParent city: 5.95.9Parent cityhost cityState: 4.34.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Mosaic District?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.7 points from 5.4 to 6.1. Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in Mosaic District

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059440201 6.1 3,775 39% $2,440
51059461605 5.7 3,838 38% $2,275
51059461606 5.4 3,080 26% $2,192
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 20

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 12%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 14%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 67%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 54%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Mosaic District

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 106Total filings (sum)
  • 2.97%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.6%Peak year (2016)
  • 4.61%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Mosaic District

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Mosaic District

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Mosaic District?

Mosaic District scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Mosaic District compare to Merrifield overall?

Mosaic District scores 0.1 points lower than Merrifield overall (5.9/10). Renters spend 35% of income on rent vs 26% citywide. Average rent: $2,309 vs $2,368.
Q3

What is the average rent in Mosaic District?

Average gross rent in Mosaic District is $2,309/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Mosaic District residents are renters?

78% of Mosaic District households are renter-occupied (vs 61% in Merrifield). The neighborhood has 10,693 residents.
Q5

Is Mosaic District a high social-vulnerability area?

Mosaic District sits in the 20th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Mosaic District have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Mosaic District is census tract 51059440201 (score 6.1/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.4 to 6.1, a spread of 0.7 points.
Q7

How safe is Mosaic District for landlords?

Mosaic District carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.8/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Merrifield as a whole (5.9/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Mosaic District?

Mosaic District has 11,133 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (43.2%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (27.7%), Hispanic / Latino (14.9%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Mosaic District

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Merrifield

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Mosaic District.

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