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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Mosaic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Merrifield

Tract 51059461606 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 3,080 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 51059461606 covers part of the Mosaic District area of Merrifield, VA, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 53% Owners 28%
Tract context
Occupied units1,362
Renter share72.0%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate1.0%
Median income$130,917

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Mosaic District
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 5 tracts In Merrifield
Very Low
Within county
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#54 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
High
Within state
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#302 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Merrifield and the region

Centroid at 38.8804, -77.2241 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mosaic District scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Merrifield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,192 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Merrifield
3.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Merrifield
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Merrifield
3.8

How Mosaic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mosaic District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.45.4This tracttract 461606Merrifield: 5.95.9Merrifieldparent cityCounty: 4.34.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.24.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 37

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Mosaic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mosaic District

Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 26% of renters here are cost-burdened. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Disability prevalence runs 19.2% against 31.5% nationally. Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.

On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. 9% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Food insecurity runs 10.6% against 17.8% nationally. Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 4.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51059461606

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059461606?

Census tract 51059461606 in the Mosaic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51059461606?

Median gross rent is $2,192/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51059461606?

1.0% of residents in tract 51059461606 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,080.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51059461606?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 42th, minority 83th, housing 69th.
Q5

Is tract 51059461606 considered part of Mosaic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059461606 fall within Mosaic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51059461606 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51059461606 compare to Merrifield overall?

Tract 51059461606 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Merrifield at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Merrifield; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Merrifield

Top eight tracts in Merrifield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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