Fairlee Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oakton

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.7/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.1/10. It sits 1.2 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.

SNAP participation runs 4.3% against 15.2% nationally. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10.

The voucher gap is 16.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Average gross rent is $2,685, 13% above the Merrifield average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 19% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.8/10. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $188,958, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.