4 census tracts · pop 16,145 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.9/10
· range 3.4–5.5
Fairlee takes in 4 census tracts of Oakton, VA, population 16,145. The Eviction Risk Score is 3.9/10, in the Lower tier. Rent consumes at least 30% of income for 23% of renter households.
The clearest offset is economic stress, at 1.2/10. The 4 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3.4 to 5.5, a 2.1-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address. Average gross rent is $2,719, 19% above the Oakton average of $2,276.
The voucher gap is 17.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 7.4/10.
Filings are well documented here: 27 across 2 observed tracts. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 6.3% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.
Food insecurity affects 7.0% of adults, 10.8 points below the national rate. Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.7/10. Severe burden reaches 9%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.
The worst year on record was 2013, when filings touched 1.8% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 0.4% in 2016, is well off that peak. For a like-for-like read, Cobbdale and Fairfax Circle score within a fraction of it.
Against average income of $181,028, annual rent is only 18%, a wide affordability cushion.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
4 tracts · population-weighted
Fairlee vs OaktonHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority66%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport34%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Fairlee
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
27Total filings (sum)
0.73%Avg annual filing rate
1.8%Peak year (2013)
0.28%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Fairlee
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
6.1%Housing insecurity
3.7%Utility shutoff threat
6.7%Food insecurity
4.0%SNAP enrollment
5.1%No health insurance
18.7%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Fairlee
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Fairlee?
Fairlee scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Fairlee compare to Oakton overall?
Fairlee scores 0.1 points lower than Oakton overall (4/10). Renters spend 23% of income on rent vs 25% citywide. Average rent: $2,719 vs $2,276.
Q3
What is the average rent in Fairlee?
Average gross rent in Fairlee is $2,719/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Fairlee residents are renters?
30% of Fairlee households are renter-occupied (vs 33% in Oakton). The neighborhood has 16,145 residents.
Q5
Is Fairlee a high social-vulnerability area?
Fairlee sits in the 19th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Fairlee have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Fairlee is census tract 51059461604 (score 5.5/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.4 to 5.5, a spread of 2.1 points.
Q7
How safe is Fairlee for landlords?
Fairlee carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.9/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Oakton as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Fairlee?
Fairlee has 16,450 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (51.7%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (24.9%), Hispanic / Latino (8.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
