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Neighborhood · Oakton, VA

Fairlee Eviction Risk: Lower

4 census tracts · pop 16,145 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.9/10 · range 3.4–5.5

Fairlee takes in 4 census tracts of Oakton, VA, population 16,145. The Eviction Risk Score is 3.9/10, in the Lower tier. Rent consumes at least 30% of income for 23% of renter households.

The clearest offset is economic stress, at 1.2/10. The 4 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3.4 to 5.5, a 2.1-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address. Average gross rent is $2,719, 19% above the Oakton average of $2,276.

The voucher gap is 17.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 7.4/10.

Filings are well documented here: 27 across 2 observed tracts. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 6.3% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

Food insecurity affects 7.0% of adults, 10.8 points below the national rate. Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.7/10. Severe burden reaches 9%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

The worst year on record was 2013, when filings touched 1.8% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 0.4% in 2016, is well off that peak. For a like-for-like read, Cobbdale and Fairfax Circle score within a fraction of it.

Against average income of $181,028, annual rent is only 18%, a wide affordability cushion.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
3.9
Lower
4 tracts · population-weighted
Fairlee vs Oakton How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
22.6% -10%
Oakton: 25.1%
Average gross rent
$2,719 +19%
Oakton: $2,276
Average HH income
$181,028 +11%
Oakton: $163,662
Poverty rate
4.1% +1%
Oakton: 4.1%
Renter share
29.8% -11%
Oakton: 33.4%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Fairlee and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 3.4–5.5

Why Fairlee scores 3.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.2–7.4 across tracts
7.2
Rent control risk
23% of income on rent · Range 3.9–4.3 across tracts
4.2
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.7–3.0 across tracts
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
30% renter households · Range 7.0–9.7 across tracts
7.4
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 3.5–3.8 across tracts
3.5
Economic stress
4.1% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.6 across tracts
1.2
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 5.2–8.3 across tracts
6.7
Risk score comparison

Fairlee vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Fairlee score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Fairlee: 3.93.9FairleeNeighborhoodParent city: 4.04.0Parent cityhost cityState: 4.34.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Fairlee?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 2.1 points from 3.4 to 5.5. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

4 tracts in Fairlee

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51059461604 5.5 2,385 18% $2,685
51059461801 4.1 1,808 12% $2,409
51059461500 3.6 6,853 21% $3,076
51059461603 3.4 5,099 30% $2,364
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 19

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 10%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 28%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 66%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 34%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Fairlee

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 27Total filings (sum)
  • 0.73%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.8%Peak year (2013)
  • 0.28%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Fairlee

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Fairlee

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Fairlee?

Fairlee scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Fairlee compare to Oakton overall?

Fairlee scores 0.1 points lower than Oakton overall (4/10). Renters spend 23% of income on rent vs 25% citywide. Average rent: $2,719 vs $2,276.
Q3

What is the average rent in Fairlee?

Average gross rent in Fairlee is $2,719/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 23% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Fairlee residents are renters?

30% of Fairlee households are renter-occupied (vs 33% in Oakton). The neighborhood has 16,145 residents.
Q5

Is Fairlee a high social-vulnerability area?

Fairlee sits in the 19th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Fairlee have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Fairlee is census tract 51059461604 (score 5.5/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.4 to 5.5, a spread of 2.1 points.
Q7

How safe is Fairlee for landlords?

Fairlee carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.9/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Oakton as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Fairlee?

Fairlee has 16,450 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (51.7%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (24.9%), Hispanic / Latino (8.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Fairlee

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Oakton

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Fairlee.

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