Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
York Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate , Springfield
Tract 51059420100 ·
Fairfax County, VA · pop 4,483 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 51059420100 in the York Manor area of Springfield, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,483 residents. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%Stable renters 4%Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,196
Renter share14.3%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate4.1%
Median income$140,833
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In York Manor
Moderate
Within parent city
17th percentile
#6 of 7 tracts In Springfield
Very Low
Within county
81th percentile
#53 of 274 tracts In Fairfax County
High
Within state
86th percentile
#302 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7859, -77.1644 · click any tract to drill in
Why York Manor scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,396 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.7
How York Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 37
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
49%Socioeconomic
22%Household composition
73%Racial/ethnic minority
25%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
28Total filings over 4 yrs
4.28%Avg annual filing rate
9.8%Peak (2016)
15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year2011 to 2016
Filings climbed 88% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
9.9%Housing insecurity
5.4%Utility-shutoff threat
12.0%Food insecurity
7.0%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
10.2%No health insurance
12.5%Frequent mental distress
24.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in York Manor
Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 71% of renters here are cost-burdened. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10.
It sits 1.1 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3. Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 28 filings here across 4 tracked years.
SNAP participation runs 7.0% against 15.2% nationally. At $2,396 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Springfield commands. Filings peaked in 2016 at 9.8% of renter households.
In a typical year about 4.3% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059420100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059420100?
Census tract 51059420100 in the York Manor neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059420100?
Median gross rent is $2,396/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059420100?
4.1% of residents in tract 51059420100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,483.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059420100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 22th, minority 73th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 51059420100 considered part of York Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059420100 fall within York Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059420100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 28 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059420100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.28% of renter households, peaking at 9.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059420100 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059420100 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 51059420100 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Springfield at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.