Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,349 of 84,120 nationally
Beverly Forest Eviction Risk: Elevated , Springfield
Tract 51059421002 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 5,759 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
51059421002 is a census tract in the Beverly Forest area of Springfield, VA. It scores 6.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 5,759. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
6.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units2,050
Renter share52.5%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate12.6%
Median income$110,385
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7573, -77.1802 · click any tract to drill in
Why Beverly Forest scores 6.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
12.6% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,291 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.7
How Beverly Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 77%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 59%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 416Total filings over 4 yrs
- 10.15%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.4%Peak (2012)
- 78Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 31% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.5%Housing insecurity
- 9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 18.6%Food insecurity
- 14.4%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 12.1%No health insurance
- 15.6%Frequent mental distress
- 29.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Beverly Forest
Severe burden reaches 32%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. It sits 2.6 points above the Fairfax County average of 4.3.
What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 9/10. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Court records carry 416 eviction filings across 4 observed years.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.9/10. Average gross rent is $2,291, 14% below the Springfield average.
The worst year on record was 2012, when 12.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 10.2% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.7 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059421002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059421002?
Census tract 51059421002 in the Beverly Forest neighborhood scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059421002?
Median gross rent is $2,291/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059421002?
12.6% of residents in tract 51059421002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,759.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059421002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 25th, minority 79th, housing 59th.
Q5
Is tract 51059421002 considered part of Beverly Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059421002 fall within Beverly Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059421002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 416 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059421002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.15% of renter households, peaking at 12.4% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059421002 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059421002 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 51059421002 scores 6.9/10, higher than the parent city of Springfield at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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