Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Monticello Forest Eviction Risk: Elevated , Springfield
Tract 51059430600 · Fairfax County, VA · pop 6,618 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 51059430600 sits in the Monticello Forest area of Springfield eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.1/10. Cost burden runs 60% here against 41.0% across Fairfax County.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,840
Renter share18.0%
SVI overall0.71
Poverty rate8.5%
Median income$122,826
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Springfield and the region
Centroid at 38.7875, -77.1868 · click any tract to drill in
Why Monticello Forest scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Springfield
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.5% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$2,296 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Springfield
9.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Springfield
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Springfield
6.7
How Monticello Forest compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 71
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 62%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 246Total filings over 4 yrs
- 9.08%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.2%Peak (2016)
- 72Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 24% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Monticello Forest. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.2%Housing insecurity
- 6.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.4%Food insecurity
- 9.6%SNAP enrollment
- 7.9%Transit barriers
- 15.6%No health insurance
- 13.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Monticello Forest
What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 9/10. 24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.8 points. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.1/10.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 246 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Average gross rent is $2,296, 14% below the Springfield average. The worst year on record was 2016, when 11.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 9.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 79% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.4/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51059430600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51059430600?
Census tract 51059430600 in the Monticello Forest neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51059430600?
Median gross rent is $2,296/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51059430600?
8.5% of residents in tract 51059430600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,618.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51059430600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 71th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 62th, minority 86th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 51059430600 considered part of Monticello Forest?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51059430600 fall within Monticello Forest (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51059430600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 246 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51059430600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.08% of renter households, peaking at 11.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51059430600 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51059430600 compare to Springfield overall?
Tract 51059430600 scores 6.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Springfield at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Springfield eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Springfield
Top eight tracts in Springfield ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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