Monticello Forest Eviction Risk: Moderate , Springfield

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 9.2/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 9/10.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.4/10. Against Fairfax County at 41.0%, 32% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $3,284 a month, rents run 24% over what the rest of Springfield commands.

Against the Fairfax County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Severe burden reaches 11%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The filing record is not thin: 19 evictions over 4 years of observation.

SNAP participation runs 6.8% against 15.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2011 at 8.9% of renter households.

In a typical year about 5.9% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 73rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.