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Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally

Grayson Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tuckahoe

Tract 51087200106 · Henrico County, VA · pop 5,018 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

With a score of 5.5/10, tract 51087200106 in the Grayson Hill area of Tuckahoe, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,018. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.7/10.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 27% Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units2,048
Renter share50.5%
SVI overall0.85
Poverty rate19.5%
Median income$67,647

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Grayson Hill
Very High
Within parent city
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#2 of 14 tracts In Tuckahoe
Very High
Within county
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#15 of 85 tracts In Henrico County
High
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tuckahoe and the region

Centroid at 37.6000, -77.5796 · click any tract to drill in

Why Grayson Hill scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tuckahoe
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
19.5% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$1,231 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tuckahoe
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tuckahoe
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tuckahoe
5.4

How Grayson Hill compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Grayson Hill risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.5This tracttract 2001064.1Tuckahoeparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 85

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 226Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 10.48%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.9%Peak (2016)
  • 134Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Grayson Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Grayson Hill

Severe burden reaches 30%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.6/10.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.2/10. Average gross rent is $1,231, 20% below the Tuckahoe average.

It sits 1.2 points above the Henrico County average of 4.3. The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Court records carry 226 eviction filings across 2 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 11.9% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 10.5% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51087200106

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200106?

Census tract 51087200106 in the Grayson Hill neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51087200106?

Median gross rent is $1,231/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200106?

19.5% of residents in tract 51087200106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,018.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200106?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 88th, minority 58th, housing 77th.
Q5

Is tract 51087200106 considered part of Grayson Hill?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200106 fall within Grayson Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200106?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 226 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200106 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.48% of renter households, peaking at 11.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51087200106 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51087200106 compare to Tuckahoe overall?

Tract 51087200106 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tuckahoe at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tuckahoe

Top eight tracts in Tuckahoe ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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