Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,083 of 84,120 nationally
Grayson Hill Eviction Risk: Lower , Tuckahoe
Tract 51087200106 · Henrico County, VA · pop 5,018 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 51087200106 (the Grayson Hill area of Tuckahoe, Virginia) comes in at 6.7/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 90% of US census tracts.
About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,231 monthly, set against $67,647 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 51% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units2,048
Renter share50.5%
SVI overall0.85
Poverty rate19.5%
Median income$67,647
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tuckahoe and the region
Centroid at 37.6000, -77.5796 · click any tract to drill in
Why Grayson Hill scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tuckahoe
8.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
19.5% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$1,231 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tuckahoe
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tuckahoe
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tuckahoe
5.4
How Grayson Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 85
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 77%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 226Total filings over 2 yrs
- 10.48%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.9%Peak (2016)
- 134Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Grayson Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.9%Housing insecurity
- 9.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.3%Food insecurity
- 17.1%SNAP enrollment
- 10.4%Transit barriers
- 13.4%No health insurance
- 18.2%Frequent mental distress
- 38.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Grayson Hill
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Henrico County average of 6.1 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 14.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 226 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 10.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 11.9% of renter households in 2016.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51087200106
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51087200106?
Census tract 51087200106 in the Grayson Hill neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51087200106?
Median gross rent is $1,231/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51087200106?
19.5% of residents in tract 51087200106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,018.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51087200106?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 88th, minority 58th, housing 77th.
Q5
Is tract 51087200106 considered part of Grayson Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51087200106 fall within Grayson Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51087200106?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 226 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51087200106 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.48% of renter households, peaking at 11.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51087200106 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51087200106 compare to Tuckahoe overall?
Tract 51087200106 scores 3.6/10, right in line with the parent city of Tuckahoe at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tuckahoe eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tuckahoe
Top eight tracts in Tuckahoe ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Sweet Briar Park
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Wedgewood
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Gayton Green
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Wedgewood
2.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Tuckahoe Village West
2.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Grayson Hill
2.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · VA
Drouin Hill
1.9
/ 10 · Very Low
Tract · VA
Canterbury
1.7
/ 10 · Very Low
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