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Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Falls Eviction Risk: Moderate , Cascades

Tract 51107611206 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,829 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Tract 51107611206 sits in the Potomac Falls area of Cascades, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. It is home to 4,829 residents. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 18% Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,648
Renter share24.5%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$145,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Potomac Falls
Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Cascades
Very Low
Within county
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#32 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Elevated
Within state
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#1,032 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Cascades and the region

Centroid at 39.0575, -77.3920 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Falls scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Cascades
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,953 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cascades
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cascades
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cascades
4.5

How Potomac Falls compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Potomac Falls risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.0This tracttract 6112064.3Cascadesparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 31

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 22Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 5.87%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.9%Peak (2016)
  • 22Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Falls. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Falls

26% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Loudoun County average of 37.5%. Average gross rent is $1,953, 26% below the Cascades average. 16% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. SNAP participation runs 4.8% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 7.6% against 17.8% nationally.

On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 22 eviction filings across 1 observed years.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 5.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 5.9% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #48,956 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 25% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $145,000, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611206

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611206?

Census tract 51107611206 in the Potomac Falls neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611206?

Median gross rent is $1,953/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 26% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611206?

3.1% of residents in tract 51107611206 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,829.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611206?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 39th, minority 68th, housing 63th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611206 considered part of Potomac Falls?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611206 fall within Potomac Falls (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611206?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 22 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611206 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.87% of renter households, peaking at 5.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611206 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611206 compare to Cascades overall?

Tract 51107611206 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Cascades at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cascades; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Cascades

Top eight tracts in Cascades ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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