Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Potomac Falls Eviction Risk: Moderate , Cascades
Tract 51107611207 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 3,834 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 4.1/10, tract 51107611207 in the Potomac Falls area of Cascades, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,834. Cost burden runs 58% here against 37.5% across Loudoun County.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,504
Renter share28.0%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate4.0%
Median income$171,480
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Cascades and the region
Centroid at 39.0373, -77.3944 · click any tract to drill in
Why Potomac Falls scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Cascades
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,467 rent vs county FMR
5.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cascades
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cascades
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cascades
4.5
How Potomac Falls compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 8%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 13Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.10%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.1%Peak (2016)
- 13Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Potomac Falls. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.1%Housing insecurity
- 4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.8%Food insecurity
- 4.9%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 5.9%No health insurance
- 13.6%Frequent mental distress
- 21.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Potomac Falls
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Food insecurity runs 7.8% against 17.8% nationally.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Court records carry 13 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Housing insecurity runs 7.1% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 5.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 5.1% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $171,480, annual rent is just 17%. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611207
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611207?
Census tract 51107611207 in the Potomac Falls neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611207?
Median gross rent is $2,467/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611207?
4.0% of residents in tract 51107611207 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,834.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611207?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 8th, minority 58th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611207 considered part of Potomac Falls?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611207 fall within Potomac Falls (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611207?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 13 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611207 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.10% of renter households, peaking at 5.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611207 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611207 compare to Cascades overall?
Tract 51107611207 scores 4.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Cascades at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cascades; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Cascades
Top eight tracts in Cascades ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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