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Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Falls Eviction Risk: Moderate , Cascades

Tract 51107611202 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,760 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

With a score of 4/10, tract 51107611202 in the Potomac Falls area of Cascades, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,760 residents. 64% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Loudoun County average of 37.5%.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 11% Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units1,671
Renter share30.5%
SVI overall0.40
Poverty rate2.1%
Median income$189,180

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Potomac Falls
Elevated
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Cascades
Moderate
Within county
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#30 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Elevated
Within state
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#1,032 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Cascades and the region

Centroid at 39.0518, -77.3749 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Falls scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Cascades
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cascades
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cascades
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cascades
4.5

How Potomac Falls compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Potomac Falls risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.0This tracttract 6112024.3Cascadesparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 40

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 3Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 0.76%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.8%Peak (2016)
  • 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Falls. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Falls

Severe burden reaches 35%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The dominant input is supply constraint at 10/10. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $3,501, 32% above the Cascades average. Food insecurity runs 5.9% against 17.8% nationally.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 3 filings here across 1 tracked years. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Filings peaked in 2016 at 0.8% of renter households. In a typical year about 0.8% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 42nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611202?

Census tract 51107611202 in the Potomac Falls neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611202?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611202?

2.1% of residents in tract 51107611202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,760.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 77th, minority 57th, housing 65th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611202 considered part of Potomac Falls?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611202 fall within Potomac Falls (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.76% of renter households, peaking at 0.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611202 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611202 compare to Cascades overall?

Tract 51107611202 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Cascades at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cascades; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Cascades

Top eight tracts in Cascades ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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