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Neighborhood · Ranked #83,884 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Falls Eviction Risk: Lower , Cascades

Tract 51107611202 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,760 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

The Elevated-tier score of $1/10 for census tract 51107611202 reflects conditions in the Potomac Falls area of Cascades, Virginia. That is riskier than about 73% of US census tracts.

64% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 35% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $3,501 a month against an average household income of $189,180 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 31% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 11% Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units1,671
Renter share30.5%
SVI overall0.40
Poverty rate2.1%
Median income$189,180

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Potomac Falls
Low
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Cascades
Moderate
Within county
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#69 of 75 tracts In Loudoun County
Very Low
Within state
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#2,104 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Cascades and the region

Centroid at 39.0518, -77.3749 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Falls scores 1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Cascades
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cascades
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cascades
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cascades
4.5

How Potomac Falls compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Potomac Falls risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.01.0This tracttract 611202Cascades: 3.53.5Cascadesparent cityCounty: 1.31.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 40

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 3Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 0.76%Avg annual filing rate
  • 0.8%Peak (2016)
  • 3Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Falls. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Falls

What moves this score most is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Cascades, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Loudoun County average of 5.2 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 5.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 40th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51107611202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611202?

Census tract 51107611202 in the Potomac Falls neighborhood scores 1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51107611202?

Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611202?

2.1% of residents in tract 51107611202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,760.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 8th, household 77th, minority 57th, housing 65th.
Q5

Is tract 51107611202 considered part of Potomac Falls?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611202 fall within Potomac Falls (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 3 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.76% of renter households, peaking at 0.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51107611202 struggle to pay rent?

About 5.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51107611202 compare to Cascades overall?

Tract 51107611202 scores 1/10, lower than the parent city of Cascades at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cascades; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Cascades

Top eight tracts in Cascades ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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