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Neighborhood · Cascades, VA

Potomac Falls Eviction Risk: Moderate

4 census tracts · pop 19,406 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.3/10 · range 4.8–6.0

Potomac Falls is a diverse neighborhood in Cascades with 4 census tracts and a population of 19,406 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.3/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 42% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 25% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $2,558/month sits 4% lower than the Cascades citywide median ($2,657).

Risk score
5.3
Moderate
4 tracts · population-weighted
Potomac Falls vs Cascades How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
41.8% +28%
Cascades: 32.6%
Average gross rent
$2,558 -4%
Cascades: $2,657
Average HH income
$177,435 +7%
Cascades: $166,023
Poverty rate
2.5% -12%
Cascades: 2.9%
Renter share
22.8% -20%
Cascades: 28.4%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Potomac Falls and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 4.8–6.0

Why Potomac Falls scores 5.3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.3–6.3 across tracts
6.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 6.6–7.2 across tracts
7.0
Rent control risk
42% of income on rent · Range 4.4–6.6 across tracts
5.9
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.9–3.3 across tracts
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
23% renter households · Range 6.0–6.5 across tracts
6.3
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 3.7–4.5 across tracts
4.3
Economic stress
2.5% below poverty line · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.4–10.0 across tracts
6.0
Risk score comparison

Potomac Falls vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Potomac Falls score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Potomac Falls: 5.35.3Potomac FallsNeighborhoodParent city: 5.25.2Parent cityhost cityState: 5.35.3Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Potomac Falls?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square — click to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 1.2 points from 4.8 to 6.0. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

4 tracts in Potomac Falls

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51107611202 6.0 4,760 64% $3,501
51107611207 5.8 3,834 58% $2,467
51107611206 5.0 4,829 26% $1,953
51107611102 4.8 5,983 26% $2,353
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 22

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 6%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 47%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 59%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 44%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Potomac Falls

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 41Total filings (sum)
  • 3.73%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.9%Peak year (2016)
  • 3.73%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Potomac Falls

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Potomac Falls

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Potomac Falls?

Potomac Falls scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Potomac Falls compare to Cascades overall?

Potomac Falls scores 0.1 points higher than Cascades overall (5.2/10). Renters spend 42% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Median rent: $2,558 vs $2,657.

Q3

What is the average rent in Potomac Falls?

Median gross rent in Potomac Falls is $2,558/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Potomac Falls residents are renters?

23% of Potomac Falls households are renter-occupied (vs 28% in Cascades). The neighborhood has 19,406 residents.

Q5

Is Potomac Falls a high social-vulnerability area?

Potomac Falls sits in the 22th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

Which tracts in Potomac Falls have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Potomac Falls is census tract 51107611202 (score 6.0/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.8 to 6.0 — a spread of 1.2 points.

Q7

How safe is Potomac Falls for landlords?

Potomac Falls carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.3/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Cascades as a whole (5.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.

Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Potomac Falls?

Potomac Falls has 19,307 residents (Diverse Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (59.8%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (15.9%), Hispanic / Latino (12.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Potomac Falls

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