Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,663 of 84,120 nationally
Herndon Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oak Grove
Tract 51107611701 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 4,705 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 51107611701 sits in the Herndon Heights neighborhood of Oak Grove, Virginia. It has a population of 4,705 and an eviction-risk score of 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). 73% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 23% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,711/month against a median household income of $126,224 — roughly 16% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,675
Renter share25.3%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate5.3%
Median income$126,224
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Oak Grove and the region
Centroid at 38.9907, -77.4051 · click any tract to drill in
Why Herndon Heights scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Oak Grove
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.3% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,711 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oak Grove
5.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oak Grove
5.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oak Grove
4.6
How Herndon Heights compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 48
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 52%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Herndon Heights. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.3%Housing insecurity
- 6.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.6%Food insecurity
- 9.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 15.2%No health insurance
- 14.6%Frequent mental distress
- 29.5%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611701
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611701?
Census tract 51107611701 in the Herndon Heights neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611701?
Median gross rent is $1,711/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 73% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611701?
5.3% of residents in tract 51107611701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,705.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611701?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 52th, minority 69th, housing 32th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611701 considered part of Herndon Heights?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611701 fall within Herndon Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611701 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611701 compare to Oak Grove overall?
Tract 51107611701 scores 5.5/10 — higher than the parent city of Oak Grove at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oak Grove; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Oak Grove
Top eight tracts in Oak Grove ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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