Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Seneca Green Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lowes Island
Tract 51107611204 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 5,268 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
51107611204 is a census tract in the Seneca Green area of Sugarland Run, VA. It scores 4.3/10 for landlords. 57% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,679
Renter share9.1%
SVI overall0.44
Poverty rate8.3%
Median income$160,139
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lowes Island and the region
Centroid at 39.0391, -77.3726 · click any tract to drill in
Why Seneca Green scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
8.3% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$2,288 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lowes Island
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lowes Island
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lowes Island
5.4
How Seneca Green compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 44
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 71%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 6Total filings over 1 yrs
- 1.85%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.9%Peak (2016)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Seneca Green. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.0%Food insecurity
- 8.9%SNAP enrollment
- 7.4%Transit barriers
- 13.5%No health insurance
- 15.0%Frequent mental distress
- 28.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Seneca Green
Cost burden runs 57% here against 37.5% across Loudoun County. The main counterweight is economic stress at 2.1/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.3/10. The filing record is not thin: 6 evictions over 1 years of observation.
At $2,288 a month, rents run 15% under what the rest of Sugarland Run commands. Filings peaked in 2016 at 1.9% of renter households.
In a typical year about 1.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 9% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Against average income of $160,139, annual rent is just 17%.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611204?
Census tract 51107611204 in the Seneca Green neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611204?
Median gross rent is $2,288/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611204?
8.3% of residents in tract 51107611204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,268.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 71th, minority 71th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611204 considered part of Seneca Green?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611204 fall within Seneca Green (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51107611204?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 6 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51107611204 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.85% of renter households, peaking at 1.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51107611204 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51107611204 compare to Lowes Island overall?
Tract 51107611204 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Lowes Island at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lowes Island; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lowes Island
Top eight tracts in Lowes Island ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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