Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #59,654 of 84,120 nationally
Avonlea Eviction Risk: Lower , South Riding
Tract 51107611811 · Loudoun County, VA · pop 7,757 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
51107611811 is a census tract in the Avonlea area of Stone Ridge, VA. It scores 3.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 7,757 residents. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10.
Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 84%
Tract context
Occupied units2,525
Renter share16.1%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate3.4%
Median income$177,396
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
7
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
31
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across South Riding and the region
Centroid at 38.9287, -77.5499 · click any tract to drill in
Why Avonlea scores 3.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South Riding
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.3
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.4% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,599 rent vs county FMR
6.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from South Riding
1.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South Riding
3.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from South Riding
1.9
How Avonlea compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 37%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 15%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Avonlea. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.3%Housing insecurity
- 4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.9%Food insecurity
- 4.8%SNAP enrollment
- 4.8%Transit barriers
- 5.4%No health insurance
- 12.9%Frequent mental distress
- 19.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Avonlea
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.9/10. On the softer side, housing-court posture reads 1.9/10.
Disability prevalence runs 19.1% against 31.5% nationally. Cost burden runs 31% here against 37.5% across Loudoun County. Food insecurity runs 7.9% against 17.8% nationally.
Severe burden reaches 11%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against the Loudoun County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. The voucher gap is 12.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
On the national scale it lands near the 29th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 16% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 18% of average household income of $177,396, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51107611811
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51107611811?
Census tract 51107611811 in the Avonlea neighborhood scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51107611811?
Median gross rent is $2,599/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51107611811?
3.4% of residents in tract 51107611811 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,757.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51107611811?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 37th, minority 68th, housing 15th.
Q5
Is tract 51107611811 considered part of Avonlea?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51107611811 fall within Avonlea (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51107611811 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51107611811 compare to South Riding overall?
Tract 51107611811 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of South Riding at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South Riding eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South Riding
Top eight tracts in South Riding ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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