Neighborhood · Ranked #44,286 of 84,120 nationally

Coverstone Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bull Run

Tract 51153901407 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,385 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Here is how census tract 51153901407, in the Coverstone area of Bull Run, looks to a landlord: a 5.4/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 4,385. It lands near the 51st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 33% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,948 a month while the average household earns $106,094 a year, roughly 22% of income at the averages. Renters make up 53% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 25% Stable renters 29% Owners 46%

Tract context

Occupied units1,530

Renter share53.5%

SVI overall0.65

Poverty rate8.0%

Median income$106,094

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bull Run and the region

Centroid at 38.7946, -77.5231 · click any tract to drill in

Why Coverstone scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Bull Run

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

8.0% poverty · this tract

2.0

Supply constraint

$1,948 rent vs county FMR

3.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Bull Run

2.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Bull Run

2.7

Housing court bias

Inherited from Bull Run

2.7

How Coverstone compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

74%Socioeconomic
54%Household composition
86%Racial/ethnic minority
34%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

117Total filings over 1 yrs
13.46%Avg annual filing rate
13.5%Peak (2016)
117Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.7%Housing insecurity
9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
17.9%Food insecurity
12.6%SNAP enrollment
9.4%Transit barriers
14.8%No health insurance
16.6%Frequent mental distress
29.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Coverstone

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 3.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bull Run, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and Black and ranks around the 65th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901407

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901407?

Census tract 51153901407 in the Coverstone neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901407?

Median gross rent is $1,948/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901407?

8.0% of residents in tract 51153901407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,385.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901407?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 54th, minority 86th, housing 34th.

Is tract 51153901407 considered part of Coverstone?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901407 fall within Coverstone (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901407?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 117 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901407 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.46% of renter households, peaking at 13.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901407 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901407 compare to Bull Run overall?

Tract 51153901407 scores 4.5/10, lower than the parent city of Bull Run at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bull Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bull Run

Top eight tracts in Bull Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.