Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Zouave Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bull Run
Tract 51153901418 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,256 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Tract 51153901418 sits in the Zouave Hills area of Bull Run, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.5/10. It is home to 4,256 residents. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 48%
Owners 28%
Tract context
Occupied units1,696
Renter share72.3%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate11.7%
Median income$101,579
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bull Run and the region
Centroid at 38.7898, -77.5488 · click any tract to drill in
Why Zouave Hills scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bull Run
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.7% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,973 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bull Run
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bull Run
2.7
How Zouave Hills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 58
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 54%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 87%Racial/ethnic minority
- 41%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.1%Housing insecurity
- 9.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.1%Food insecurity
- 14.5%SNAP enrollment
- 10.1%Transit barriers
- 14.5%No health insurance
- 17.4%Frequent mental distress
- 30.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Zouave Hills
This is renter territory: 72% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 34% of renters here are cost-burdened.
On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.5/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.6/10.
Severe burden reaches 10%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 6.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
It tracks the Prince William County average of 4.1 closely. Average gross rent is $1,973, close to the Bull Run average.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $101,579.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901418
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901418?
Census tract 51153901418 in the Zouave Hills neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901418?
Median gross rent is $1,973/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901418?
11.7% of residents in tract 51153901418 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,256.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901418?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 56th, minority 87th, housing 41th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901418 considered part of Zouave Hills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901418 fall within Zouave Hills (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901418 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901418 compare to Bull Run overall?
Tract 51153901418 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Bull Run at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bull Run; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bull Run
Top eight tracts in Bull Run ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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