TGM Bull Run Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 30%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $63,327, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.5/10.

Food insecurity runs 29.3% against 17.8% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 7.5/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 20.3% against 11.3% nationally.

It sits 0.9 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1. On the national scale it lands near the 61st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.1/10.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,794, close to the Bull Run average.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.