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Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally

Swans Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Cherry Hill

Tract 51153900904 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,634 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Tract 51153900904 sits in the Swans Creek area of Cherry Hill eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.7/10. It is home to 6,634 residents. At $2,719 a month, rents run 41% over what the rest of Cherry Hill commands.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 8% Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,984
Renter share14.8%
SVI overall0.22
Poverty rate4.0%
Median income$143,864

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Swans Creek
Moderate
Within parent city
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 4 tracts In Cherry Hill
Low
Within county
53 th percentile
Rank, 53rd percentileLowHigh
#44 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Moderate
Within state
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#1,298 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Cherry Hill and the region

Centroid at 38.5604, -77.2885 · click any tract to drill in

Why Swans Creek scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Cherry Hill
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,719 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cherry Hill
6.4

How Swans Creek compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Swans Creek risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.7This tracttract 9009044.4Cherry Hillparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 22

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 12Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 7.45%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.5%Peak (2016)
  • 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Swans Creek

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.

18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10. The voucher gap is 17.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions over 1 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 7.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.5% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 35th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Social vulnerability reads 3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900904

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900904?

Census tract 51153900904 in the Swans Creek neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153900904?

Median gross rent is $2,719/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900904?

4.0% of residents in tract 51153900904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,634.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900904?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 39th, minority 83th, housing 21th.
Q5

Is tract 51153900904 considered part of Swans Creek?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900904 fall within Swans Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900904?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900904 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.45% of renter households, peaking at 7.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153900904 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153900904 compare to Cherry Hill overall?

Tract 51153900904 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of Cherry Hill at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Cherry Hill

Top eight tracts in Cherry Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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