Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #81,634 of 84,120 nationally
Swans Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Cherry Hill
Tract 51153900904 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,634 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
For landlords sizing up Swans Creek in Cherry Hill, census tract 51153900904 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.3/10. It lands near the 82nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 44% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 18% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,719 a month while the average household earns $143,864 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. About 15% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,984
Renter share14.8%
SVI overall0.22
Poverty rate4.0%
Median income$143,864
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
20
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Cherry Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.5604, -77.2885 · click any tract to drill in
Why Swans Creek scores 1.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Cherry Hill
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
4.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,719 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cherry Hill
6.4
How Swans Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 22
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 39%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 21%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.45%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.5%Peak (2016)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.4%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.8%Food insecurity
- 9.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 7.7%No health insurance
- 15.1%Frequent mental distress
- 24.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Swans Creek
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 12 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 7.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.5% of renter households in 2016.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900904
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900904?
Census tract 51153900904 in the Swans Creek neighborhood scores 1.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900904?
Median gross rent is $2,719/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900904?
4.0% of residents in tract 51153900904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,634.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900904?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 39th, minority 83th, housing 21th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900904 considered part of Swans Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900904 fall within Swans Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900904?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900904 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.45% of renter households, peaking at 7.5% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900904 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900904 compare to Cherry Hill overall?
Tract 51153900904 scores 1.2/10, lower than the parent city of Cherry Hill at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Cherry Hill
Top eight tracts in Cherry Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related