Swans Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , Cherry Hill
Tract 51153900904 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,634 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
Tract 51153900904 sits in the Swans Creek area of Cherry Hill eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.7/10. It is home to 6,634 residents. At $2,719 a month, rents run 41% over what the rest of Cherry Hill commands.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Cherry Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.5604, -77.2885 · click any tract to drill in
Why Swans Creek scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Swans Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 22
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 39%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 21%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 1 yrs
- 7.45%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.5%Peak (2016)
- 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.4%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.8%Food insecurity
- 9.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 7.7%No health insurance
- 15.1%Frequent mental distress
- 24.9%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Swans Creek
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10. The voucher gap is 17.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions over 1 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2016, when 7.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.5% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 35th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
About tract 51153900904
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900904?
What is the average rent in tract 51153900904?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900904?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900904?
Is tract 51153900904 considered part of Swans Creek?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900904?
What share of households in tract 51153900904 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153900904 compare to Cherry Hill overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Cherry Hill
Top eight tracts in Cherry Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.