Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Spyglass Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Cherry Hill
Tract 51153901015 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,561 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 51153901015 covers part of the Spyglass Hill area of Cherry Hill, VA, and scores 5.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,561 residents. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 41%
Tract context
Occupied units1,173
Renter share59.4%
SVI overall0.65
Poverty rate11.6%
Median income$75,511
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Cherry Hill and the region
Centroid at 38.5841, -77.3147 · click any tract to drill in
Why Spyglass Hill scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Cherry Hill
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.6% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,690 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cherry Hill
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cherry Hill
6.4
How Spyglass Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 65
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 91%Racial/ethnic minority
- 48%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Spyglass Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.2%Housing insecurity
- 10.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.7%Food insecurity
- 12.9%SNAP enrollment
- 9.3%Transit barriers
- 9.3%No health insurance
- 16.7%Frequent mental distress
- 27.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Spyglass Hill
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.3/10.
It sits 1.7 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1. The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10.
Average gross rent is $1,690, 12% below the Cherry Hill average. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.9/10.
Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $75,511. 59% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901015
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901015?
Census tract 51153901015 in the Spyglass Hill neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901015?
Median gross rent is $1,690/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901015?
11.6% of residents in tract 51153901015 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,561.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901015?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 64th, minority 91th, housing 48th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901015 considered part of Spyglass Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901015 fall within Spyglass Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901015 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901015 compare to Cherry Hill overall?
Tract 51153901015 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Cherry Hill at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cherry Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Cherry Hill
Top eight tracts in Cherry Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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