Neighborhood · Ranked #34,613 of 84,120 nationally

Amberleigh Station Eviction Risk: Moderate , Gainesville

Tract 51153901421 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,416 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Tract 51153901421 covers the Amberleigh Station neighborhood of Gainesville in Virginia. Home to 5,416 residents, it scores 6.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 79% of US census tracts.

62% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,935 a month while the average household earns $196,088 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 14% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.2

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 5% Owners 86%

Tract context

Occupied units1,361

Renter share13.9%

SVI overall0.14

Poverty rate0.8%

Median income$196,088

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Gainesville and the region

Centroid at 38.7744, -77.5841 · click any tract to drill in

Why Amberleigh Station scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Gainesville

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

0.8% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,935 rent vs county FMR

7.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Gainesville

6.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Gainesville

3.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from Gainesville

4.8

How Amberleigh Station compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 14

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

13%Socioeconomic
33%Household composition
59%Racial/ethnic minority
12%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.6%Housing insecurity
5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
9.1%Food insecurity
5.9%SNAP enrollment
5.5%Transit barriers
6.5%No health insurance
14.5%Frequent mental distress
22.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Amberleigh Station

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 7.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Gainesville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 14th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901421

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901421?

Census tract 51153901421 in the Amberleigh Station neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901421?

Median gross rent is $2,935/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901421?

0.8% of residents in tract 51153901421 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,416.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901421?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 33th, minority 59th, housing 12th.

Is tract 51153901421 considered part of Amberleigh Station?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901421 fall within Amberleigh Station (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51153901421 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901421 compare to Gainesville overall?

Tract 51153901421 scores 5.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Gainesville at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville

Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.