Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Amberleigh Station Eviction Risk: Lower , Gainesville
Tract 51153901421 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,416 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
With a score of 3/10, tract 51153901421 in the Amberleigh Station area of Gainesville, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 62% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,361
Renter share13.9%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate0.8%
Median income$196,088
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
3
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Gainesville and the region
Centroid at 38.7744, -77.5841 · click any tract to drill in
Why Amberleigh Station scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Gainesville
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
0.8% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,935 rent vs county FMR
7.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Gainesville
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Gainesville
3.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Gainesville
4.8
How Amberleigh Station compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 14
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 13%Socioeconomic
- 33%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.6%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.1%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.5%Transit barriers
- 6.5%No health insurance
- 14.5%Frequent mental distress
- 22.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Amberleigh Station
The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $2,935, 29% above the Gainesville average. The voucher gap is 26.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 7.7/10. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points. SNAP participation runs 5.9% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 9.1% against 17.8% nationally. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 14% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901421
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901421?
Census tract 51153901421 in the Amberleigh Station neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901421?
Median gross rent is $2,935/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901421?
0.8% of residents in tract 51153901421 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,416.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901421?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 33th, minority 59th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901421 considered part of Amberleigh Station?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901421 fall within Amberleigh Station (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51153901421 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51153901421 compare to Gainesville overall?
Tract 51153901421 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Gainesville at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville
Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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