Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally
Carolina Chase Eviction Risk: Lower , Gainesville
Tract 51153901508 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,770 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 3.2/10, tract 51153901508 in the Carolina Chase area of Gainesville, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,770. 59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Prince William County average of 43.3%.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,928
Renter share28.1%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate5.2%
Median income$137,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
30
th percentile
Low
Within state
23
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Gainesville and the region
Centroid at 38.8006, -77.6533 · click any tract to drill in
Why Carolina Chase scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Gainesville
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
5.2% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$2,113 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Gainesville
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Gainesville
3.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Gainesville
4.8
How Carolina Chase compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 39%Socioeconomic
- 26%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 62%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 123Total filings over 1 yrs
- 26.39%Avg annual filing rate
- 26.4%Peak (2016)
- 123Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.3%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.2%Food insecurity
- 9.7%SNAP enrollment
- 7.3%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 15.8%Frequent mental distress
- 26.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Carolina Chase
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.3/10.
18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 123 filings here across 1 tracked years. It sits 0.9 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 26.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 26.4% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #63,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.0 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901508
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901508?
Census tract 51153901508 in the Carolina Chase neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901508?
Median gross rent is $2,113/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901508?
5.2% of residents in tract 51153901508 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,770.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901508?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 26th, minority 70th, housing 62th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901508 considered part of Carolina Chase?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901508 fall within Carolina Chase (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901508?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 123 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901508 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 26.39% of renter households, peaking at 26.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901508 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901508 compare to Gainesville overall?
Tract 51153901508 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Gainesville at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville
Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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