Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Saranac Eviction Risk: Lower , Gainesville
Tract 51153901411 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,030 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 3/10, tract 51153901411 in the Saranac area of Gainesville, VA reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,030 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,966
Renter share3.4%
SVI overall0.08
Poverty rate3.3%
Median income$193,869
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
10
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Gainesville and the region
Centroid at 38.7807, -77.6329 · click any tract to drill in
Why Saranac scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Gainesville
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,700 rent vs county FMR
6.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Gainesville
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Gainesville
3.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Gainesville
4.8
How Saranac compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 8
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 7%Socioeconomic
- 16%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 9Total filings over 1 yrs
- 4.86%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.9%Peak (2016)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 6.6%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.1%Food insecurity
- 4.5%SNAP enrollment
- 4.5%Transit barriers
- 5.3%No health insurance
- 12.8%Frequent mental distress
- 23.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Saranac
Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. 23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Food insecurity runs 7.1% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points. Average gross rent is $2,700, 18% above the Gainesville average.
The voucher gap is 16.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, roughly one in two of renters here are cost-burdened. Court records carry 9 eviction filings across 1 observed years.
Housing insecurity runs 6.6% against 14.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 4.9% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901411
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901411?
Census tract 51153901411 in the Saranac neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153901411?
Median gross rent is $2,700/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901411?
3.3% of residents in tract 51153901411 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,030.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901411?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 8th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 16th, minority 55th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 51153901411 considered part of Saranac?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901411 fall within Saranac (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901411?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901411 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.86% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153901411 struggle to pay rent?
About 6.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153901411 compare to Gainesville overall?
Tract 51153901411 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Gainesville at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville
Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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