Neighborhood · Ranked #38,706 of 84,120 nationally

Saranac Eviction Risk: Moderate , Gainesville

Tract 51153901411 · Prince William County, VA · pop 6,030 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 51153901411 sits in the Saranac area of Gainesville, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.1/10. On the national scale it ranks #19,772 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 48% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,700 a month while the average household earns $193,869 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 3% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 2% Owners 96%

Tract context

Occupied units1,966

Renter share3.4%

SVI overall0.08

Poverty rate3.3%

Median income$193,869

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Gainesville and the region

Centroid at 38.7807, -77.6329 · click any tract to drill in

Why Saranac scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Gainesville

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

3.3% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,700 rent vs county FMR

6.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Gainesville

6.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Gainesville

3.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from Gainesville

4.8

How Saranac compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 8

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

7%Socioeconomic
16%Household composition
55%Racial/ethnic minority
12%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

9Total filings over 1 yrs
4.86%Avg annual filing rate
4.9%Peak (2016)
9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.6%Housing insecurity
4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
7.1%Food insecurity
4.5%SNAP enrollment
4.5%Transit barriers
5.3%No health insurance
12.8%Frequent mental distress
23.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Saranac

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 6.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Gainesville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 9 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 4.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 4.9% of renter households in 2016.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 8th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901411

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901411?

Census tract 51153901411 in the Saranac neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901411?

Median gross rent is $2,700/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901411?

3.3% of residents in tract 51153901411 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,030.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901411?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 8th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 16th, minority 55th, housing 12th.

Is tract 51153901411 considered part of Saranac?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901411 fall within Saranac (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901411?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901411 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.86% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901411 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901411 compare to Gainesville overall?

Tract 51153901411 scores 4.9/10, lower than the parent city of Gainesville at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville

Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.