Neighborhood · Ranked #38,706 of 84,120 nationally

Waterfall Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Gainesville

Tract 51153901509 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,727 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Here is how census tract 51153901509, in the Waterfall Village area of Gainesville, looks to a landlord: a $1/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 7,727. That is riskier than about 73% of US census tracts.

About 46% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 9% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,767 a month while the average household earns $206,463 a year, roughly 16% of income at the averages. About 8% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 4% Owners 92%

Tract context

Occupied units2,433

Renter share8.3%

SVI overall0.06

Poverty rate4.7%

Median income$206,463

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Gainesville and the region

Centroid at 38.8658, -77.6683 · click any tract to drill in

Why Waterfall Village scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Gainesville

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

4.7% poverty · this tract

1.2

Supply constraint

$2,767 rent vs county FMR

7.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Gainesville

6.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.2

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Gainesville

3.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from Gainesville

4.8

How Waterfall Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 6

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

13%Socioeconomic
26%Household composition
53%Racial/ethnic minority
2%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

7Total filings over 1 yrs
5.19%Avg annual filing rate
5.2%Peak (2016)
7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.9%Housing insecurity
4.4%Utility-shutoff threat
7.2%Food insecurity
5.0%SNAP enrollment
4.7%Transit barriers
5.7%No health insurance
14.0%Frequent mental distress
24.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Waterfall Village

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Gainesville, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 5.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 5.2% of renter households in 2016.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901509

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901509?

Census tract 51153901509 in the Waterfall Village neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901509?

Median gross rent is $2,767/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901509?

4.7% of residents in tract 51153901509 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,727.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901509?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 13th, household 26th, minority 53th, housing 2th.

Is tract 51153901509 considered part of Waterfall Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901509 fall within Waterfall Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901509?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901509 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.19% of renter households, peaking at 5.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901509 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901509 compare to Gainesville overall?

Tract 51153901509 scores 4.9/10, lower than the parent city of Gainesville at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Gainesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Gainesville

Top eight tracts in Gainesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.