Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,939 of 84,120 nationally
Iron Gate Eviction Risk: Moderate , Loch Lomond
Tract 51153901703 · Prince William County, VA · pop 2,418 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Here is how census tract 51153901703, in the Iron Gate neighborhood of Loch Lomond, looks to a landlord: a 5.9/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 2,418. That is riskier than about 70% of US census tracts.
100% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $116,516 a year. Renters make up 1% of occupied homes.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1-10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1%
Stable renters 0%
Owners 99%
Tract context
Occupied units703
Renter share1.1%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate2.1%
Median income$116,516
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Loch Lomond and the region
Centroid at 38.7761, -77.4873 · click any tract to drill in
Why Iron Gate scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Loch Lomond
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
2.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Loch Lomond
5.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Loch Lomond
3.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Loch Lomond
4.3
How Iron Gate compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 44%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 2%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Iron Gate. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.9%Housing insecurity
- 7.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.1%Food insecurity
- 9.9%SNAP enrollment
- 8.1%Transit barriers
- 16.5%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 30.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Iron Gate
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 5.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Loch Lomond, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 17th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
In CDC survey modeling, about 13.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153901703
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901703?
Census tract 51153901703 in the Iron Gate neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901703?
2.1% of residents in tract 51153901703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,418.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901703?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 21th, minority 78th, housing 2th.
Q4
Is tract 51153901703 considered part of Iron Gate?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901703 fall within Iron Gate (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q5
What share of households in tract 51153901703 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 51153901703 compare to Loch Lomond overall?
Tract 51153901703 scores 5.1/10, right in line with the parent city of Loch Lomond at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Loch Lomond; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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