Neighborhood · Ranked #26,932 of 84,120 nationally

West Gate of Lomond Eviction Risk: Moderate , Sudley

Tract 51153901601 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,688 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 51153901601 runs through West Gate of Lomond in Sudley. With 4,688 residents, it scores 6.9/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 93% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 83% of renter households, a severe level, and 68% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,567 a month against an average household income of $80,387 a year, roughly 38% of income at the averages. About 25% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

5.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 4% Owners 75%

Tract context

Occupied units1,019

Renter share25.4%

SVI overall0.87

Poverty rate17.1%

Median income$80,387

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Sudley and the region

Centroid at 38.7875, -77.4940 · click any tract to drill in

Why West Gate of Lomond scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Sudley

6.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

17.1% poverty · this tract

4.3

Supply constraint

$2,567 rent vs county FMR

6.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Sudley

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Sudley

8.1

Housing court bias

Inherited from Sudley

6.5

How West Gate of Lomond compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

83%Socioeconomic
89%Household composition
84%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

9Total filings over 1 yrs
3.81%Avg annual filing rate
3.8%Peak (2016)
9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

18.4%Housing insecurity
10.7%Utility-shutoff threat
23.7%Food insecurity
17.9%SNAP enrollment
11.5%Transit barriers
21.5%No health insurance
17.0%Frequent mental distress
38.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in West Gate of Lomond

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Sudley, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 18.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901601

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901601?

Census tract 51153901601 in the West Gate of Lomond neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901601?

Median gross rent is $2,567/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 83% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901601?

17.1% of residents in tract 51153901601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,688.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 89th, minority 84th, housing 66th.

Is tract 51153901601 considered part of West Gate of Lomond?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901601 fall within West Gate of Lomond (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901601?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 9 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901601 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.81% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901601 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901601 compare to Sudley overall?

Tract 51153901601 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Sudley at 5.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sudley; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Sudley

Top eight tracts in Sudley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.