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Neighborhood · Richmond, VA

Chestnut Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate

2 census tracts · pop 4,739 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.1/10 · range 4.5–6.1

Chestnut Hill is a black (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Richmond with 2 census tracts and a population of 4,739 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 69% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 24% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $872/month sits 36% lower than the Richmond citywide average ($1,372).

Risk score
5.1
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Chestnut Hill vs Richmond How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
68.8% +121%
Richmond: 31.1%
Average gross rent
$872 -36%
Richmond: $1,372
Average HH income
$39,160 -38%
Richmond: $62,671
Poverty rate
27.3% +45%
Richmond: 18.8%
Renter share
57.8% +2%
Richmond: 56.5%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Chestnut Hill and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 4.5–6.1

Why Chestnut Hill scores 5.1

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.4–8.4 across tracts
8.4
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Rent control risk
69% of income on rent · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
58% renter households · Range 6.0–6.0 across tracts
6.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts
5.0
Economic stress
27.3% below poverty line · Range 2.7–10.0 across tracts
5.2
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–1.8 across tracts
1.5
Risk score comparison

Chestnut Hill vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Chestnut Hill score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Chestnut Hill: 5.15.1Chestnut HillNeighborhoodParent city: 4.74.7Parent cityhost cityState: 3.83.8Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Chestnut Hill

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
51760020100 6.1 1,651 64% $344
51760010900 4.5 3,088 71% $1,155
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 90

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 91%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 63%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 91%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 75%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Chestnut Hill

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,662Total filings (sum)
  • 35.70%Avg annual filing rate
  • 42.4%Peak year (2016)
  • 37.86%Latest filed (2016)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Chestnut Hill

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Chestnut Hill

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Chestnut Hill?

Chestnut Hill scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Chestnut Hill compare to Richmond overall?

Chestnut Hill scores 0.4 points higher than Richmond overall (4.7/10). Renters spend 69% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $872 vs $1,372.
Q3

What is the average rent in Chestnut Hill?

Average gross rent in Chestnut Hill is $872/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Chestnut Hill residents are renters?

58% of Chestnut Hill households are renter-occupied (vs 56% in Richmond). The neighborhood has 4,739 residents.
Q5

Is Chestnut Hill a high social-vulnerability area?

Chestnut Hill sits in the 90th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Chestnut Hill have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Chestnut Hill is census tract 51760020100 (score 6.1/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.5 to 6.1, a spread of 1.6 points.
Q7

How safe is Chestnut Hill for landlords?

Chestnut Hill carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.1/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Richmond as a whole (4.7/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Chestnut Hill?

Chestnut Hill has 4,441 residents (Black (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: Black (non-Hispanic) (80.7%), White (non-Hispanic) (13.4%), Other / Multiracial (3.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Chestnut Hill

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Richmond

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Chestnut Hill.

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