Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
Chestnut Hill Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond
Tract 51760010900 · Richmond city, VA · pop 3,088 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51760010900 is a census tract in the Chestnut Hill area of Richmond, VA. It scores 4.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,088. 71% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Richmond City average of 50.2%.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 54%
Tract context
Occupied units1,233
Renter share45.6%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate10.9%
Median income$47,708
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
58
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5640, -77.4176 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chestnut Hill scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
10.9% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,155 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How Chestnut Hill compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 88
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 44%Household composition
- 87%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 40%Grade C
- 18%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 902Total filings over 4 yrs
- 35.82%Avg annual filing rate
- 36.3%Peak (2013)
- 216Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Chestnut Hill. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.5%Housing insecurity
- 13.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.0%Food insecurity
- 21.9%SNAP enrollment
- 12.3%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 18.0%Frequent mental distress
- 36.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chestnut Hill
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.4/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Average gross rent is $1,155, 16% below the Richmond average.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 902 filings here across 4 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2013 at 36.3% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Richmond. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 35.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 8.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Richmond City average of 4.3 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760010900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760010900?
Census tract 51760010900 in the Chestnut Hill neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760010900?
Median gross rent is $1,155/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760010900?
10.9% of residents in tract 51760010900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,088.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760010900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 44th, minority 87th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 51760010900 considered part of Chestnut Hill?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760010900 fall within Chestnut Hill (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760010900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 902 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760010900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 35.82% of renter households, peaking at 36.3% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51760010900 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51760010900 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760010900 scores 4.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Richmond at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51760010900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 18% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Gilpin Court
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Oregon Hill
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Pinehurts
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Barton Heights
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Monroe Ward
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Chestnut Hill
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Creighton Court
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Carver
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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