Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,332 of 84,120 nationally
Forest Hill Farms Eviction Risk: Moderate , Richmond
Tract 51760071100 · Richmond city, VA · pop 5,380 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51760071100 sits in Forest Hill Farms in Richmond eviction risk, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.4/10. That is riskier than about 84% of US census tracts.
About 53% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,369 a month against an average household income of $59,133 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units2,957
Renter share63.6%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate11.6%
Median income$59,133
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
43
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
43
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Richmond and the region
Centroid at 37.5248, -77.5102 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forest Hill Farms scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Richmond
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.6% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,369 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Richmond
2.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Richmond
6.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Richmond
5.0
How Forest Hill Farms compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 55
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 55%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 78%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 2%Grade A
- 9%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,635Total filings over 4 yrs
- 37.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 40.9%Peak (2013)
- 562Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 22% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.2%Housing insecurity
- 8.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.2%Food insecurity
- 12.2%SNAP enrollment
- 8.4%Transit barriers
- 7.8%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 29.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Forest Hill Farms
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Richmond eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Richmond City County average of 6.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 13.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,635 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 37.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 40.9% of renter households in 2013.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 51760071100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51760071100?
Census tract 51760071100 in the Forest Hill Farms neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51760071100?
Median gross rent is $1,369/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51760071100?
11.6% of residents in tract 51760071100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,380.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51760071100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 12th, minority 70th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 51760071100 considered part of Forest Hill Farms?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51760071100 fall within Forest Hill Farms (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51760071100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,635 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51760071100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 37.52% of renter households, peaking at 40.9% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51760071100 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51760071100 compare to Richmond overall?
Tract 51760071100 scores 4.4/10, lower than the parent city of Richmond at 4.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Richmond eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51760071100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Richmond
Top eight tracts in Richmond ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Creighton Court
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Fairmount
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Carver
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Montrose Heights
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Oak Grove
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Gilpin Court
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Monroe Ward
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
South Garden
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
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