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Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally

Aquia Town Center Eviction Risk: Moderate , Aquia Harbour

Tract 51179010211 · Stafford County, VA · pop 4,715 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 51179010211 covers part of the Aquia Town Center area of Stafford County, VA, and scores 5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,715. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 24% Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,451
Renter share41.6%
SVI overall0.61
Poverty rate3.2%
Median income$97,159

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Aquia Town Center
Very High
Within county
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
High
Within state
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#508 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
National
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#32,842 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region

Centroid at 38.4586, -77.4124 · click any tract to drill in

Why Aquia Town Center scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
3.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,737 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.0

How Aquia Town Center compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Aquia Town Center risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.0This tracttract 0102113.6Aquia Harbourparent city4.5Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 61

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 165Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 14.96%Avg annual filing rate
  • 14.9%Peak (2015)
  • 74Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Aquia Town Center. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Aquia Town Center

Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.5/10.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 165 filings here across 2 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2015, when 14.9% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 15.0% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 61st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 41% of renters.

It tracks the Stafford County average of 4.5 closely. Average gross rent runs $1,737 a month.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51179010211

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010211?

Census tract 51179010211 in the Aquia Town Center neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51179010211?

Median gross rent is $1,737/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010211?

3.2% of residents in tract 51179010211 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,715.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010211?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 61th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 61th, minority 78th, housing 54th.
Q5

Is tract 51179010211 considered part of Aquia Town Center?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010211 fall within Aquia Town Center (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010211?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 165 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010211 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.96% of renter households, peaking at 14.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51179010211 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51179010211 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?

Tract 51179010211 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Aquia Harbour at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aquia Harbour; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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