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Neighborhood · Ranked #68,306 of 84,120 nationally

Aquia Eviction Risk: Lower , Aquia Harbour

Tract 51179010216 · Stafford County, VA · pop 7,888 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 51179010216 runs through Aquia in Aquia Harbour. With 7,888 residents, it scores 6.2/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 79% of US census tracts.

About 37% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,766 a month while the average household earns $104,159 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 43% of occupied homes.

Risk score
2.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 27% Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units2,824
Renter share42.6%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate13.8%
Median income$104,159

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Aquia
Very High
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Aquia Harbour
Moderate
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
High
Within state
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#1,257 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region

Centroid at 38.4832, -77.3966 · click any tract to drill in

Why Aquia scores 2.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
13.8% poverty · this tract
3.4
Supply constraint
$1,766 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
6.9

How Aquia compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Aquia risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.42.4This tracttract 010216Aquia Harbour: 3.33.3Aquia Harbourparent cityCounty: 1.81.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 83

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Aquia. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Aquia

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Aquia Harbour, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stafford County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 19.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 83rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51179010216

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010216?

Census tract 51179010216 in the Aquia neighborhood scores 2.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51179010216?

Median gross rent is $1,766/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010216?

13.8% of residents in tract 51179010216 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,888.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010216?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 70th, minority 82th, housing 89th.
Q5

Is tract 51179010216 considered part of Aquia?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010216 fall within Aquia (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51179010216 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51179010216 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?

Tract 51179010216 scores 2.4/10, lower than the parent city of Aquia Harbour at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aquia Harbour; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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