Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Aquia Eviction Risk: Moderate , Aquia Harbour
Tract 51179010216 ·
Stafford County, VA · pop 7,888 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
With a score of 5.5/10, tract 51179010216 in the Aquia area of Boswell's Corner, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 7,888. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%Stable renters 27%Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units2,824
Renter share42.6%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate13.8%
Median income$104,159
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100th percentile
#1 of 2 tracts In Aquia
Very High
Within parent city
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Aquia Harbour
Moderate
Within county
84th percentile
#6 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
High
Within state
89th percentile
#251 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region
Centroid at 38.4832, -77.3966 · click any tract to drill in
Why Aquia scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
13.8% poverty · this tract
3.4
Supply constraint
$1,766 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
6.9
How Aquia compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 83
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
19.9%Housing insecurity
12.1%Utility-shutoff threat
24.0%Food insecurity
19.4%SNAP enrollment
12.3%Transit barriers
17.3%No health insurance
19.4%Frequent mental distress
33.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Aquia
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.1/10. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.8/10.
At $1,766 a month, rents run 20% over what the rest of Boswell's Corner commands. It sits 1.0 points above the Stafford County average of 4.5. On the national scale it lands near the 72nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 8.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 37% of renters. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $104,159.
43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010216
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010216?
Census tract 51179010216 in the Aquia neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010216?
Median gross rent is $1,766/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010216?
13.8% of residents in tract 51179010216 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,888.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010216?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 70th, minority 82th, housing 89th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010216 considered part of Aquia?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010216 fall within Aquia (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010216 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010216 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?
Tract 51179010216 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Aquia Harbour at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aquia Harbour; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.