3 census tracts · pop 11,268 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.8/10
· range 4.4–5.1
Orchard Valley spans 3 census tracts of South Greeley, WY and houses 11,268 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.8/10, in the Moderate tier. 43% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well above the South Greeley rate of 27.2%.
23% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.8/10.
At $1,116 a month, rents sit 19% under what the rest of South Greeley commands. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
The 3 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.7 points apart at the extremes. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $60,154.
34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
With little internal variation, 4.8/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
3 tracts · population-weighted
Orchard Valley vs South GreeleyHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
43.2%+59%
South Greeley: 27.2%
Average gross rent
$1,116-19%
South Greeley: $1,376
Average HH income
$60,154+12%
South Greeley: $53,625
Poverty rate
18.9%-28%
South Greeley: 26.2%
Renter share
34.0%+32%
South Greeley: 25.8%
Geographic context
Risk heat across Orchard Valley and the region
Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 4.4–5.1
Why Orchard Valley scores 4.8
9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 1.3–1.3 across tracts
1.3
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 3.6–3.6 across tracts
3.6
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 2.0–4.2 across tracts
3.3
Rent control risk
43% of income on rent · Range 1.0–5.3 across tracts
3.6
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 1.6–2.0 across tracts
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
34% renter households · Range 1.0–6.6 across tracts
4.4
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 1.5–7.0 across tracts
4.8
Economic stress
18.9% below poverty line · Range 2.9–5.4 across tracts
4.7
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.6–5.2 across tracts
4.8
Risk score comparison
Orchard Valley vs. parent city, state, U.S.
Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).
Variance across tracts
How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Orchard Valley?
Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.
Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.7 points from
4.4 to
5.1.
Tracts are relatively uniform, so conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority46%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport71%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Frequently asked
About Orchard Valley
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Orchard Valley?
Orchard Valley scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Orchard Valley compare to South Greeley overall?
Orchard Valley scores 1.1 points higher than South Greeley overall (3.7/10). Renters spend 43% of income on rent vs 27% citywide. Average rent: $1,116 vs $1,376.
Q3
What is the average rent in Orchard Valley?
Average gross rent in Orchard Valley is $1,116/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Orchard Valley residents are renters?
34% of Orchard Valley households are renter-occupied (vs 26% in South Greeley). The neighborhood has 11,268 residents.
Q5
Is Orchard Valley a high social-vulnerability area?
Orchard Valley sits in the 75th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Orchard Valley have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Orchard Valley is census tract 56021000401 (score 5.1/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.4 to 5.1, a spread of 0.7 points.
Q7
How safe is Orchard Valley for landlords?
Orchard Valley carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.8/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to South Greeley as a whole (3.7/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Orchard Valley?
Orchard Valley has 11,665 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (66.7%), Hispanic / Latino (25%), Other / Multiracial (5.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
